Oregon Elephant

Merkley - He seemed somewhat uncomfortable, like he was gathering his courage for a schoolyard fight in which he wasn't the biggest kid. I think he was trying hard to show he belonged on a big stage. He recited his lines fine, but I'm just not sure he won over any undecided voters. His rhetoric was very populist, left-leaning. It will appeal to his base, but I'm not sure independents will be convinced. His statement at the end that "we don't run negative ads, we run issue ads" was just silly. It doesn't impress when the audience is laughing at you. Grade: C+ Smith - He seemed comfortable and ready to go at it. He seemed ready for the questions about negative campaigning, and put Merkley on the defensive with his offer to bilaterally stop the negative ads. He fell into pettiness at times, and seemed a little prickly in his confrontations with Merkley. But all in all, he seemed the more moderate, which will appeal to independents, who are the real...

Merkley - It was fine, but nothing unusual. Smith - says he was rated 50 out of 100 senators in ideology - says he is "the center of the senate". Two phrases he has used multiple times "you can believe his rhetoric, or you can believe his record." and "i have always been there for rural oregon." Smith's close was a little stronger, but neither statement was terrible or terrific.

Questioner mentioned Gordon Smith's offer to stop negative ads on both sides. Merkley - "I don't have negative ads, I have ISSUE ads." Audience laughed - I don't think Merkley was trying to be funny. Bad moment for Merkley.

Question on global warming.... Merkley - Basic stock liberal stump speech. Was fine. Smith - When salmon fisherman have problems, I've been there to help them. Talks about the farmers he's helped. I'm for natural resources, but people count too. Smith's answer was a little better.

What can we do to not become even more of a debtor nation? Smith - Gives the stock moderate position, strengthen the dollar, some public assistance Merkley - talks about bush/smith giveaways. Infrastructure, Green energy, Obama tax cut. I think Merkley's answer was a little better...

say three positive things about your opponent? Smith said three things personal, but not voting things.... Merkley said he voted with Bush 90% of the time, so he was with Oregon 10% of the time. That seems a little like a strange thing to say...does that mean every Bush position is wrong, and every non-Bush position is right? And Merkley is showing himself as a bipartisan....?

Doesn't want to punish business...relates it to jobs. Smart move. Merkley also talking about jobs, and how Smith's policies are resulting in lost jobs. They both know this is a hot button. "Cheney energy plan"....this is the second time Cheney has been mentioned. Ah, Cheney again! Now three mentions. Smith - Obama also voted for the bill. Merkley supports windfall taxes. Merkley doesn't address the fact that Obama also supported the bill.

Smith is pushing lower taxes...will be interesting to see how this plays. With the economy in the toilet, are people still sensitive to the tax story? Merkley says Smith is running up the debt Wow, they're talking directly to/at each other about government size/taxes. This is good stuff. Wish the presidential debate was like this!

I think Smith looks good, and seems more "senatorial"....Merkley is playing the populist class warfare game with both barrels.

Smith: Been to Iraq many times. Had many questions. Met with families who had lost loved ones. Offered ammendment with Democrats to end war and bring troops home. We won the war - Iraq must win the peace. Merkley: Our sons and daughters are the wrong ones to be there - we don't speak the language or understand the culture. I support Obama's plan to leave in 16 months, refocus on central front, Afghantistan.

Merkley: We need a senator from Oregon immersed in energy. Current energy policy was built by Cheney to enrich oil companies. Need energy policy that tackles global warming. Smith: There isn't a senator in DC that has introduced more renewable energy legislation. Merkley's record on hydroelectric is terrible, and i will defend hydroelectric. A draw...nothing too exciting in these answers.

Gordon Smith was just asked about Sarah Palin...he said she was Governor of California. Smith says he supports McCain because he doesn't need on-the-job training. Says McCain is a reformer. Says the country needs someone who can work with the other side. Merkley refers to Smith's mistake...he didn't do a good job of avoiding sounding petty. Merkley: I'm a proud community organizer.

Merkley: Foreclosure is because of predatory lenders....wow, he's really going after mortgage companies. Are all lenders crooks? I don't think so. Smith: I reach across the aisle. Worked with John Kerry to pass a law allowing people to stay in their homes. Central to the american dream is having a house. Good exchange for Smith.

Says he has always followed the law...says DEQ has said repeatedly they are within the law. Merkley - talking about Iraq...what does this have to do with the question? Merkley's performance so far has been ragged. Wow, this is really personal...these guys really don't like each other. Words like "coward", "hypocrite" said right to each other's faces.

wow...the times are tight...one minute to respond, 45 seconds for rebuttal...hope they ate their wheaties... Question 1 - negative ads merkley responds to question about negative ads...kind of a weasely answer wow, smith brings up his wife's feelings...that's a pretty tough statement. smith offers to bring down his ads. merkley plays the rove card smith calls merkley ads defamatory, etc. this is getting pretty personal and snipy, right of the bat... Question 2 - Bailout bill Smith - talks about doing something vs doing nothing....seems to be a strong answer Merkley - talks about smith raising taxes, and also cutting taxes for the rich. This seems like a tricky and strange argument. I don't think it works. Smith - you have a choice to believe what he's said, or what he's done. Smith says he is a rural oregonian, and knows what they need. Says merkley has taxed, snubbed rural oregon. This is a very strong argument. Smith looks strong tonight. Smith - we need to s...

I don't drink...but let's think of some debate-drinking-game-phrases anyway....such as: "Bush" "economy" "middle class" "illegal aliens" "furniture" Any others? Those are the ones I can think of. Ok...turning on KGW...

Sen. Gordon Smith and Jeff Merkley will be debating on thursday night at 7. It will be broadcast locally here in Portland at 7pm, and I'll be liveblogging it (my first debate liveblog!). Be sure to check in for updates.

So, McCain is hitting hard on the Ayers connection. I really, really think pounding the Ayers stuff is just counterproductive. The people I talk to, who aren't ideological and aren't really that political, they care about one issue right now - the economy. What McCain needs to do is come up with a solid, game-changing proposal to deal with it. A plan with specifics, and that he can persuasively explain and defend. If he can't do that, all the mentions in the world about Ayers and Dohrn and Wright aren't going to get him anywhere. The proof is in the pudding - they first mentioned Ayers Saturday, and Rasmussen tracking (Sat-Mon) has McCain down 9 and Gallup tracking has him down 8.

Vaughn Ververs, CBS News Rich Lowry, New York Post Jonah Goldberg, National Review Bob Shrum, Huffington Post David Brooks, New York Times Howard Fineman, Newsweek Fred Barnes, Weekly Standard

Well, Sarah done good, and I'm sure the Obama people are happy with how Biden did as well. Ultimately, it probably didn't change many minds. Bottom Line: I think Palin did fine, she is probably back to the “do no damage” status of most VP picks when it comes to independents. But I wouldn’t guess it’s any better than that . By the way, I think that’s where Biden is too. Ultimately, Palin will neither win nor lose the election for McCain. He’s going to do that entirely on his own.