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Rich Lowry on Russia and Georgia

Rich Lowry of National Review posts a kind of contrarian position to all the folks saying the Russia is getting just what they want from Georgia. Here's an excerpt:

“I just talked to a friend who is very plugged into this and is as shrewd and informed an observer on the European scene as you can find. He thinks it’s going badly for the Russians and is not 1968 redux as they had hoped. The presidents of the Baltic states and Poland have flown to Tbilisi, providing a moral backstop for the Georgian government. And now the Bush administration is stepping up, with Bush’s stern words today, with humanitarian aid going to Georgia that the Russians can’t possibly oppose, and with Sec. Rice headed to Tbilisi. All this is serving to frustrate the ultimate Russian war aim of toppling Saakashvili, who is addressing enthusiastic crowds on the streets and taking the Russians to the Hague. He thinks the fact that it hasn’t turned out the way the Russians expected accounts for the constant back-and-forth about whether they are stopping or not.”

My take:

I agree. I think the folks who think Russia is getting just what they want aren't looking at the bigger picture. There's no way all the other Eastern European countries are going to just sit back and allow Russia to dominate them. And the U.S./western Europe is now on their guard when it comes to Russia, and are prepared to put the big hurt on them (expulsion from G8, making countries like Georgia part of NATO). Russia really has no allies in this. And their military would be hopelessly outmatched against the U.S. (most of the Russian vehicles and munitions are cold-war-era and the military are conscripts). It's a serious situation, but not as desperate an

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