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The Electability Myth

One area many people point to when they favor John McCain is his supposed electability. The thought goes that since most head-to-head polls currently have him doing well against either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, he would be the Republican candidate most likely to win in November.

Balderdash!

Remember Michael Dukakis? He had a 17-point lead over Bush 41 at one point. All it got him was his head handed to him when it came time to exercise the only vote that counts. There are other examples too, of course. The point is, that that head-to-head polls at this early juncture mean nothing.

Let's look at some of McCain's shortcomings that could be fatal in November:

  1. His age - he's in his 70s, which in and of itself is of course fine, but he's starting to look ragged in some of his appearances, and his speaking, never exactly Reaganesque, is getting worse. Now imagine him with 10 more months of hard campaigning.
  2. His personality. Many find his feistiness endearing, but over the ensuing months there's a decent chance his legendary temper will unleash at the wrong time, in the wrong way. Americans like passion, but they don't like hotheads as presidents.
  3. His policy positions. While he'll definitely take some independents and Democrats, he'll also lose some Republicans, both through outright defection and simply becuase some will not feel motivated enough to vote. The latter reason is likely to be fatal -- the Democrats are fired up, and a Republican candidate that conservatives are reticent about will be a death knell come November.

Now let's look at Mitt Romney:

  1. He is a young 60 - fit and healthy. He's like the energizer bunny.
  2. Romney has shown an almost superhuman capacity to keep his cool. Some people would actually like to see him get more riled when others are out of line...but at least you know he won't blow his stack and spin around in the room like a top.
  3. He is clearly the most conservative viable candidate. He'll keep the base, and his expertise on the economy will win over independents over time.
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